Public Policy Polling (7/2-5, likely voters):
Larry Kissell (D): 36
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43
Thomas Hill (L): 7
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Hayes’ job approval rating is a very mediocre 38% (with 37% disapproving), while a full 48% have no opinion of Kissell, meaning that, despite his close loss in 2006, Kissell is still not well-known throughout much of the district.
PPP has more:
The good news for Kissell is that he has a lot more room to move up. While only 6% of Republicans are undecided, 22% of Democrats are. Among African American voters, Kissell is currently at 55% with 24% undecided. That is likely to move at least into the 80% range if not higher once Kissell reintroduces himself to the voters this fall.
Looking up the ballot, Obama has a small 43-39 lead over McCain in the district, with Barr snagging 7% (a number that I wouldn’t be surprised to see go down by election day). Bush won this district by 9 points in 2004, so this is exactly the sort of place that Obama needs to win in order to carry the state in November. And if Obama can provide the coattails, Hayes will be forced to fight against a headwind.
In the Governor’s race, Democrat Bev Perdue leads Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory by 43-38. Considering that much of the 8th District lies within the Charlotte media market, that’s a pretty decent showing for Perdue.
SSP currently rates NC-08 as Leans Republican.
I remember there being another poll from this district earlier this year showing Kissell leading. Who did that poll?
why isn’t Kissell any better known? Don’t local voters KNOW that they had a 329-vote margin last time? I’d expect them to be aware of all the aftermath that happened.
Then again, knowing about the aftermath of a close race isn’t the same thing as knowing the candidate.
And most of his support will probably go to Kissell. He’s still in a pretty respectable position.
… but one odd crosstab jumped out at me, Bob Barr is getting more African American support than John Mcain, 7% to 5% (Obama at 83%).